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SlugLord wrote:
Hi Rockbert!
Love the site.
My friend & I are programmer/statisticians, so we LOVE strategy games.
(We’ve even written code to study / replay allll historical games in here!)

So to your question: the current games DO have strategy…but they are limited in what amounts of people and game modes work for each map!

If you open those 3 constraints above, then anyone can play any map with any number of people & still make a good game!

Eg. If I play 1v1 on a big map, the first player has a MASSIVE advantage.

Would love to hear your thoughts :)

**but as a coder myself, these 3 ideas are the biggest impact/effort payoffs

SlugLord
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Blagoje_Jovovic wrote:
(We’ve even written code to study / replay allll historical games in here!)
Can we see some stats of that ?
SlugLord wrote:
Sure!

I picked a recent game of yours (https://dominating12.com/game/1560826)

Bloodiest battle (battle #22, blah-> codiac, 14/8 deaths)

*Have all the stats on like:
-biggest battles
-biggest failed attack, biggest successful attack
-etc

But the best part I think (which I’m using to next analyze map quality) is LUCK:
-for each attack, TRUE LUCK is calculated
-in this game, ttranbar had +7.26, codiac -3.48, blagoje +0.49


My thesis is: bad map & bad game design leads to LUCK being the main determining factor!!
Said simply: this site will need to change those settings above (to increase sample size options for larger battles & reduce luck coefficients) if it wants better strategic gameplay!

Let me know if you have any other games!
Or I’m happy to explain the “luck” calculation
(It simulates ALL possible battle paths, takes the expected deaths from those probabilistic paths, then reapplies that ratio to the total death count to get the difference).

Lmk!
But full transparency, the point of my analysis is to prove that most games on here are mostly luck (with a sprinkle of basic strategy)…unless the proposed changes are made!

SlugLord
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SlugLord wrote:
*The next steps in my analysis (when I have time)

Part1: Prove Luck as Main Variable
-calculate luck metrics across thousands of games
-calculate R^2 correlation of Luck-to-WinProbability

Part2: Prove Bad Maps/Settings
-analyze the luck metrics across different maps (to see if the relationship between Luck & Wins is stronger on certain maps or modes)

Part3: Prove imbalanced Maps
-analyze STARTING positions on maps as another metric for luck
-eg: if on classic map you start with more troops in Australia than your opponent, what are the correlations to win probability?


To me, the sad reality is that WHILE the site is great, too many of the current settings & maps are luck-driven.
Yes, you can use strategy & experience to beat the beginners, but against each other at the top, it’s all luck.
BUT if you make my proposed changes & play with larger troop sizes (& maybe try some of my new map & mode ideas) then we can cultivate some REALLY exciting, strategic, and fun games!

But right now, yeah, it’s just a lot of luck for a lot of games….

SlugLord
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SlugLord wrote:
**Final note: to the main part of the thread.
Capitals should 1000% allow for us to toggle:
-starting troops per capital
-starting troops per regular territory
-reinforcement per territory
-freeze round (first “round 0” pre-attack round everyone places reinforcements SIMULANEOUSLY and WITHOUT VISIBILITY, then all are revealed at same time once all have been placed)

These, plus some new maps, I think are very very key to the future of competitive play.
Ty,
SlugLord
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Hoodlum wrote:
just wondering if you are aware of these chrome extensions?

Dominating 12 Visualiser

Tool to playback a game.

D12 Analysis Extension

Dice stats of a game.

Game 1560826 (click to show)
SlugLord wrote:
Thanks Hoodlum!
I wasn’t aware!

HOWEVER:
I would wager that any “luck / death skew” calculations aren’t accurate.
As we all know, dice odds are different for 3v2,2v2,2v1 etc…

So my code allows us to truly see how lucky a player is!

Eg. A player that kills lots of 1lot spots would seemingly have an inflated “kill/death” skew because those odds tilt their favor.

So the goal is a more rigorous & real analysis.
Because to me, the best games have statistical balance & strategic persuasions.
(We don’t want a game that is mostly luck!!)

Lmk your thoughts,
SlugLord
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SlugLord wrote:
****But yes ultimately the goal (whether my Luck metric or just simple “killed attacking - lost attacking”)
—-> is to analyze the relationship of luck to win probability.
—> then analyze that across all maps (as a way to determine best / most strategic maps)
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Tennesseelogman wrote:
what about the balanced dice option? - all games that i create have balanced dice to help reduce the influence of luck.
Live long and prosper
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Hoodlum wrote:
SlugLord
**Final note: to the main part of the thread.
Capitals should 1000% allow for us to toggle:
-starting troops per capital
-starting troops per regular territory
-reinforcement per territory
-freeze round (first “round 0” pre-attack round everyone places reinforcements SIMULANEOUSLY and WITHOUT VISIBILITY, then all are revealed at same time once all have been placed)

These, plus some new maps, I think are very very key to the future of competitive play.
Ty,
SlugLord
Agree to all proposed suggestions. Keep what we already have as default an have the options for the game creator to,
Choose what our Capitals troops are
Choose how many reinforcements we get per round
Choose how many troops we start off with on each territory
& the freeze round..is something similar to what Hasbro (creator of risk 2 pc game) used for their original PC game. It's fair

These options would give the host options the ability to create a fairer game setting per map sizes across the site.
Always in favour of more options :)
SlugLord wrote:
@Tenessee: balanced dice is good idea & option, but it doesn’t solve the other problems of scale.
Some maps just simply don’t work for certain capital+player combos.
So having these new features opens TONS of playability up.

This can increase the strategy, the chaos, the fun, the variety, etc…all depending on goals.
(Plus you can even do things like 100capital, adjacent, 1start troop per territory, adjacent, no fog, balanced dice)

@Hoodlum: thanks for agreeing!
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SlugLord wrote:
**Would love to help build this if any Devs wanna let me cook it up!
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